Column: First Picks, week one

Just as the weather in the Carson area suddenly turned a bit more intense over the weekend, so did the thoughts of all gridiron fans with the realization that the National Football League preseason is completed and the regular season is set to begin.

It's a time of hope for all players and their fans, and in this day and age of parity in the NFL because of the salary cap and free agency, many more teams have the potential to fulfill their dreams of reaching the post season than ever before.

When making playoff predictions, everyone has their own strategies, and I'd like to share mine with you.

First, take a look at last year's scores to refresh your memory as to what happened to each team, and pay close attention to which squads were carrying momentum into the off season. Next, keep in mind what additions and losses each team had from the end of last season until now, including coaches.

Then remember what you saw during the preseason, making note of injuries and offensive and defensive precision and ineptitude. But make no conclusions from what you saw, just file the action away in the memory banks.

Finally, look at each team's schedule and determine how many games each crew will win, knowing full well that you cannot predict injuries.

NFC West - St. Louis: The Rams are heads and shoulders above the rest of the NFC Worst and won't feel the loss of head coach Dick Vermeil until the playoffs.

NFC Central - Tampa Bay: With a few additions on offense, including a new coordinator, and their always stellar defense, the Buccaneers are poised for another run at the Super Bowl.

NFC East - Dallas: The reasons that Dallas will improve this year are far too numerous to list here, and having made the playoffs eight of the last nine years, a return trip is expected by this columnist. But because of hatred and/or jealousy, many people will choose to exclude the Cowboys.

Wild card - Washington: If he looks like a weasel and acts like a weasel, then he must be a weasel. Of course, I'm talking about new Redskins owner Daniel Snyder, who has raided many chicken coops in his attempts to assemble the best team money can buy. Ninety percent of everyone making predictions expect Washington to win the division.

Wild cards - Chicago and Detroit: These young up-and-coming squads will squeak by Philadelphia, Carolina, Minnesota, Green Bay and Atlanta for the final two spots.

AFC West - Denver: With an excellent coach in Mike Shanahan, the return of running back Terrell Davis, and a cake schedule, the Broncos are sure to make some noise in a division waiting for one team to step up.

AFC Central - Tennessee: Besides being a solid football club with a powerful running game, the Titans can draw motivation from last season's finish, which saw them one yard away from going to overtime with the Rams in the Super Bowl.

AFC East - Indianapolis: I don't think there's any doubt the Colts will win the division, but head coach Jim Mora and most of his players have never won a playoff game, so the Super Bowl will wait until next year.

Wild card - Jacksonville: The players on the roster are good enough to win a championship, but the Jaguars suffered some preseason injuries and could be healthier come playoff time than they are now.

Wild card - Buffalo: The Bills were a Music City Miracle away from eliminating eventual runner-up Tennessee in the playoffs last year, and thought well enough of its team to let go heroes Bruce Smith, Andre Reed and Thurman Thomas.

Wild card - Baltimore: Last season's strong finish, a couple of key additions, and innovative head coach Brian Billick figure to get the Ravens in the playoffs for the first time.

As for our local teams ...

Oakland: The Raiders never lost a game by more than seven points last year, and they certainly have an easy enough schedule to reach the postseason, but they've been wildly inconsistent and have failed to make the playoffs in seven years.

San Francisco: The 49ers were so awful last year that the major networks excluded them from their schedules for the coming season. However, they can be seen on the History Channel.

Super Bowl - Nobody picked St. Louis last season, and even the people who got the Rams at 200-to-1 couldn't have really believed the Rams would win it. So, I ask myself, "Self, who really do you have to answer to but your loved ones and your God?" Therefore, this year, next year, and the years after until I die, I will pick Dallas to win the Super Bowl. I'm picking Dallas over Tennessee.

But if there was no such team as Dallas, I would pick Tennessee over a Tampa Bay team hosting this year's championship.

This week's best picks: Chicago and Minnesota Over 46; Denver and St. Louis Over 49; Jacksonville -11 at Cleveland.

Joe Ellison is the Nevada Appeal betting columnist