WASHINGTON - Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, only a vote away from bringing his party back into the majority, will likely soon emerge as the nation's most visible Democrat once Republican George W. Bush moves into the White House.
With the Senate divided 50-50 between the parties and only 41 votes needed under its rules to thwart most legislation, Daschle, more than any other Democrat in the country, will have the power to block Bush's agenda or at least extract concessions in exchange for it.
And if an historical trend persists - the losing party in a presidential election picks up seats in Congress two years later - or one of the GOP's aging senators leaves office suddenly, Daschle could quickly find himself atop the first Democratic majority in either house of Congress since 1994.
''He is the leading Democrat in the country,'' said Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., a longtime friend who is part of Daschle's leadership team. ''He has a national platform. I think you will see him emerge as a significant new force in national politics.''
The soft-spoken Daschle, 53, plays down talk of his own rising star.
''I don't think I'm the top anything,'' the South Dakota Democrat said in an interview in his Senate office, sitting next to a crackling fire. ''I see myself as one of many faces in Democratic leadership that hopefully will be able to articulate the vision of our party, but I don't think I have it alone.''
Daschle, who stood by Vice President Al Gore during his postelection battle in Florida, acknowledges that his own hand is stronger with Bush's victory.
''I think there is something to that,'' he said. ''Although I wouldn't hesitate to trade - that is, to have a President Gore and a Vice President Lieberman.''
Working opposite a Republican president for the first time provides Daschle both a challenge and an opportunity to be more active in shaping party policy. He says he will share setting the agenda with House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., who will have nine fewer votes than Republicans in that chamber.
Counting the tie-breaking vote of Vice President-elect Dick Cheney, Daschle has only one less vote than Republicans in the Senate. But it's Senate rules that give the minority party more power than in the House that give Daschle the stronger hand.
In the Senate, it's easier to block initiatives than to pass them, said Steven S. Smith, a Senate historian at the University of Minnesota.
''If Senator Daschle and the Democrats are freed from having to pass a president's agenda,'' Smith said, ''they can fall back more on negative power, and use that as a source of leverage with the Republicans.''
Of course, in this pre-honeymoon period, Daschle declines to talk about ''negative power,'' speaking instead of working in a bipartisan way with Bush. The two men met for a half hour in Daschle's office last week.
Bush has touted his ability to work across political aisles, especially in establishing a friendship with the late Bob Bullock, the Democratic lieutenant governor in Texas. But Daschle also has befriended a top Republican in his state, Gov. William Janklow.
''We actually talked about that,'' Daschle said of his meeting with Bush. ''I indicated that we both have something in common. I think it may be asking a lot off the bat to expect a friendship of that depth with the new president. But I do hope that some of the same qualities that came from that relationship can be found in this one.''
There will be no papering over the major disagreements Daschle and Bush have on issues such as tax cuts, school vouchers and partial privatization of Social Security.
But those who know Daschle say his low-key, easygoing bearing will help smooth the transition for both men.
''I don't know of anybody who doesn't get along with Tom Daschle,'' said former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, who preceded Daschle as Democratic leader.
''He's really good, and he's good in an understated and nonconfrontational way,'' said Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington newsletter. ''It's hard not to like Tom Daschle. It's hard to resent him. He's got that nice-guy style about him.''
Daschle's gentle manner and small size - he's about 5 feet 6 inches tall - caused some Democrats to question whether he was tough enough for the leader's job back in 1994. But he has won over converts, including Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., a former majority leader.
''I am here today to tell you that I was totally wrong about this young man,'' Byrd said as he nominated Daschle for re-election in 1996. ''He has steel in his spine, despite his reasonable and modest demeanor.''
What's next for Daschle? Dorgan thinks the party ought to consider him for president. The ''reasonable and modest'' Daschle does not dismiss the idea.
''People have talked to me about it,'' Daschle said, especially since the election. ''I'm not prepared to make any decisions with regard to my political future for some time to come.... Time will tell, and I'm very honored that people would see me in that role.''
Smith, the University of Minnesota professor, sees it as unlikely.
''He hasn't shown the ambition, and there are several of his colleagues who view themselves ahead of him in line,'' said Smith. ''You have to start giving clues to people that you might be interested. I don't think he's done that.''
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