The Nevada Economic Forum on Wednesday set the total amount of general fund revenue available for the state's coming two-year budget cycle at $3.74 billion.
That is $550.8 million more than the current biennial budget - a 17.25 percent increase in total dollars.
But it is only $102 million more than the $3.64 billion Gov. Kenny Guinn says will be needed to maintain existing services and handle growing school enrollments, prison populations and Medicaid caseloads. That doesn't include employee raises, which Guinn has listed among his top priorities.
Bob Gagnier, director of the State of Nevada Employees Association, said state workers need about $78 million more from the budget to provide them pay increases of 5 percent next year and 3 percent more in 2002.
"And that would not correct all the deficiencies that the salary survey released yesterday pointed out," he said.
That survey showed state workers about 26 percent overall below other public workers in the state and the west.
Gagnier said some of the surplus should also be made available for one-time incentive and retention bonuses to keep the most experienced state employees from leaving. That would take about $18 million, he said.
In addition to setting estimated revenues for the 2002-2003 biennium, the forum adjusted its 1999 projections to reflect the actual revenues the state has received - a total of $3.39 billion.
That means the state will start the 2001 legislature with a surplus of at least $204.3 million. When all unspent appropriations are returned from the various agencies to the state treasury, that could make more than $300 million available for one-shot expenditures such as new building construction.
The forum is a group of outside experts appointed by the governor and legislative leadership to project what revenues will be available to the state. Those estimates must be used in building the budget by both the executive and legislative branches.
Members of the forum were presented with projections for the various state revenue sources by the agency administering the tax, the Legislative Counsel Bureau's Fiscal Division, the state Budget Office and an outside consultant. Generally, the LCB estimates were most conservative, especially on gaming tax revenues which are uncertain because of challenges from Indian gaming and some seeking to outlaw sports betting.
Forum member Steve Greathouse said Wednesday he agrees with the more positive view of the industry's future expressed by the Gaming Control Board.
"I really believe revenues in Nevada are tied to the nation as well as California, which continue to have relatively positive forecasts," he said. "I'm persuaded toward the agency forecast because we continue to have strength. Things in Laughlin and Reno aren't as positive as we'd like. Still, Vegas is the driver."
"The gaming industry in Nevada is extremely strong," he said.
He was backed by the other members in voting to support an overall 10.5 percent increase in gaming revenues predicted by gaming officials - a total of $1.33 billion over the next two years.
The forum took a middle-of-the-road approach to Nevada's other major revenue generator, predicting sales tax revenues will increase 12.1 percent over the next two years to $1.4 billion. It settled on similar increases for the other major tax revenues, the insurance premium, business, liquor, cigarette and mining taxes. Projections for tobacco taxes were among the most conservative because of legal actions involving cigarette makers and increasing efforts to discourage people from smoking. Increases in cigarette tax revenues were projected at just more than 4 percent for the two year period to about $89 million.
The forum sets the amount available from the state general fund for budget purposes. But that amount is only part of the whole state budget which, with federal, highway and other money, will total more than $15 billion for the coming two-year budget period.
