RENO - National weather forecasters see another dry month ahead for northern Nevada and the Sierra.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts in its winter forecast that Nevada and the Sierra will receive less than normal amounts of rain and snow in November.
It predicts "abnormally dry" conditions for much of northern Nevada and northern California.
The Reno area just ended its driest water year since record-keeping began in 1872. The water year ending Sept. 30 showed less than one-third the area's normal precipitation.
Conditions are on track for below-average precipitation in October as well.
The atmospheric administration is predicting above-average temperatures across the West for the entire winter.
Nevada Climatologist John James warned against reading too much into the long-range forecasts, which he said are often inaccurate.
"I'm not going to start worrying about November yet because it's still a little too early," James told a Reno newspaper. "I wouldn't want to hang my hat on anything yet. Right now, it's unknown."
November typically provides about 10 percent of the area's precipitation.
"So it's important," James said. "December, January and February are much more important."
The atmospheric administration isn't predicting above or below average precipitation levels beyond November, essentially meaning it's a "toss of the coin" for the critical three-month core of the winter, said Gary Barbato, hydrologist for the National Weather Service in Reno.
Last winter was dismal, with much of the Sierra receiving below-average snowfall. In April, the snowpack at Lake Tahoe was 46 percent of average.
The transitional month of October also has been dry so far, with .001 of an inch of rain falling in the Reno area, Barbato said. Normal precipitation levels for October are .38 of an inch in Reno.
Kelly Redmond, of the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno, said he's seen some other climate models predicting a dry winter for the West and that he's inclined to agree.
"I myself would probably be a little more inclined in the dry direction rather than the wet direction," Redmond said.
