Let us make what we believe to be a safe prediction: The recall effort against Gov. Kenny Guinn will fail.
Three reasons:
-- History is against it.
No statewide recall in Nevada has ever been successful. Nationally, only one governor has ever been recalled.
The furor in California over Gov. Gray Davis has emboldened Guinn's foes -- a group of Republicans and conservatives who have notified the Secretary of State's Office they intend to begin circulating recall petitions.
In the end, though, the California recall effort will work against them because people see it as a debacle and recognize the chaos it is creating. In fact, we're not all that sure the residents of California are going to actually kick Davis out of office in October.
It's also much tougher in Nevada to get a recall on the ballot. Petitioners will need more than 128,000 signatures to force a vote.
-- Guinn remains popular.
Greg Bortolin, spokesman for Guinn, says their polls show the governor still has wide support among Nevadans. It hasn't been a year yet since he was swept into office by 68 percent to 22 percent over Joe Neal.
To be sure, many people are disappointed over his decision to call for higher spending and higher taxes. Many of those probably wouldn't vote for him again for governor -- nor will they get the chance, as he isn't able to run for a third term.
But voting to recall him from office is a different matter. It's an extreme statement most aren't willing to make.
There is also the question of who would replace him. Again, it's much tougher to get on the ballot in Nevada; a potential candidate also would need 128,000 signatures. If there were no candidates, the job would go to Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt.
-- He did nothing wrong.
Opponents may have political, philosophical and fiscal disagreements with Guinn, but they can't say he's been dishonest. He laid out a budget that was bold and controversial. The Legislature approved it, including a two-thirds majority for the tax increases.
Our math says the opposition, while significant, remains in the minority.
Nevada doesn't need a gubernatorial recall, and its residents don't want one. The voters will have ample opportunity to speak their minds in November 2004 legislative elections.
