Joe Ellison
By far the most difficult type of betting card for handicappers to wager on is the gray pleaser. It's a challenge to win on the pleaser because each point spread is adjusted about seven points against every team on the card. If a game's final lands within seven points of the original point spread, both teams are losers on the pleaser. Therefore, theoretically it is possible that there will be no winning picks on the entire card.
Still, many handicappers play the pleaser because of the potential payoffs. A regular three-team parlay card bet pays $6.75 for every dollar, but a three-team pleaser bet pays $26 for one. A four-team parlay card bet pays $13 for one, while a four-team pleaser pays $80 for one, etc. Considering the payoff odds, a bettor cannot be blamed for trying at least one pleaser a week consisting of his best picks.
But is the pleaser card really worth betting? Well, yes and no. Sometimes it's better to wager on the money line, which means betting a team to win a particular game off the board with no point spread involved.
For example, a regular seven-point underdog becomes a 1/2-point underdog on the pleaser. At the same time, that team will pay around +240 on the money line, which means that if that team wins the game outright, a $10 money line bet would return $34.
A $10 three-team pleaser with 1/2-point underdogs pays 26 for one, or $260. But a three-team money line parlay with three +240s pays $393. In fact, a $10 money line wager with three +200s returns $270, which is already better than the pleaser's $260. In instances that the underdog is +1/2-point, the money line always gives a better payoff than the pleaser.
Another prime example occurs when a team is, let's say, a regular four-point underdog. On the pleaser, often that team becomes a 3 1/2-point favorite. On the money line, that team is usually about +170.
Since teams are happy with one-point victories, rather than giving up 3 1/2 points and since the money line is close to the magic +200 necessary to pay better than the pleaser, the money line again is the smarter choice. Often underdogs will win by one to three points, making the pleaser bettor a loser and paying very close to the pleaser odds to the money line winner.
My advice is whenever you feel that the underdog has a good chance of winning a game outright, always bet the money line. Even getting less than +200 is better than giving up points on the pleaser, because the money line is the truer and fairer payoff every time.
Another good reason to wager on the money line when possible is the fact that the pleaser card requires you to bet a minimum three-team parlay. With the money line, since the bet is off the board, you have the option of betting only one or two teams on each ticket, which enhances your chances of winning.
So, when should you bet the pleaser card?
If you like a heavy underdog to at least keep the game close at the end, sometimes you can still get +3 1/2 points or more on the pleaser. Those points could come in handy in a close loss, whereas a money line wager would be a losing bet.
Also, if you foresee a blowout by the favorite, or if there is no money line on a particular game and you sense a blowout, the pleaser can be a good bet if you're not afraid to lay a large number of points.
The only other advantage to the pleaser is that only $2 is needed to make a wager, while money line board bets require $5 or more. But again, in my opinion, in the long run when betting underdogs it is worth risking the extra money in order to receive the purer payoff off the board.
Joe Ellison is the Nevada Appeal Betting Columnist.
