Despite early signs of a wet winter, water conditions in northern Nevada's basins, reservoirs and streams are nearly identical to those reported at this time last year - the third drought year in a row.
As of Feb. 1, Lahontan Reservoir had just 78 percent of the water it usually holds this time of the year.
Last Feb. 1, the reservoir was at 79 percent of average.
The latest Natural Resources Conservation Service "50 percent forecast" estimates the Truckee and Carson rivers will flow at less than 80 percent of normal this summer. There is a 50 percent chance the flow will be lower or higher.
Making Northern Nevada's water woes worse, even a wet year won't wash away damage done by the last three dry years.
"(Drought) compounds itself the longer it goes," said NRCS Water Supply Specialist Dan Greenlee. "It's going to take a couple years to get us back on track."
After three years of low precipitation, the already arid soil of Northern Nevada has dried out. Water tables have lowered and the banks of streams and rivers where water once flowed are now dry.
Even the runoff of a bulky snowpack won't necessarily translate into big stream flows, Greenlee said.
Instead, the water will soak into the dry ground before making it into streams.
"Unfortunately, this year is kind of too much like last year," Greenlee said.
Snowpacks at Ebbetts Pass and in the Carson and Truckee river basins are above average for this time of the year. But they were last year as well. In both years, early winter snowfall built massive snowpacks before grinding to a halt in January.
"Last year, April storms came in and kind of saved us," Greenlee said.
While there's a fair chance wet weather could pound the Sierra from now through spring and bring an end to the state's drought, there is an equal chance northern Nevada's water picture won't be saved by another rainy April.
Water supply forecasters say it's still too early to tell how much water will be available by the onset of summer irrigation, but there are no storms on the horizon now, Greenlee said.
