Most football fans are opposed to the practice of scheduling a week off between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl. But the more you learn about the two teams doing battle this Sunday, the easier it becomes to formulate opinions as to who will win the ball game. Handicappers want to compare the combatants in every way possible before making, what is for many of them, their biggest wager of the year.
First off, the mental edge in Super Bowl XXXIX clearly goes to New England. Philadelphia wide receiver Freddie Mitchell has already clinched the "Liquored Up Kicker" award for this year's game, and he didn't even wait until media day to earn it. In an ESPN TV interview, Mitchell claimed to not know the names of most every Patriot defensive back, yet he managed to call out safety Rodney Harrison. Here's this idiot Mitchell, who caught a paltry 22 balls this season, challenging Harrison, who led all NFL defensive backs in tackles. Now every New England defender wants to destroy Mitchell.
On Tuesday's media day, out came the inexperienced Eagles with their wide eyes aiming their own video cameras at a massive throng of reporters. Every news-gatherer was eager to hear what Mitchell had to say, but like the farm boy who let the horse get out of the barn, he was being punished by head coach Andy Reid. He had no podium, no seat, and a cap on whatever hairdo he was wearing that day. Having been scolded for defying the New England players, instead Wednesday Mitchell directed his comments toward ESPN analysts, saying they were being way too critical of his lack of production and overall stupidity. Mitchell obviously lacks focus and is a noticeable distraction to his team.
The only thing worse than Mitchell putting his foot in his mouth is having to listen to Eagle wide receiver Terrible Owens. You wouldn't think it was possible to use the words "I," "me," and "my" more than twice in 100 consecutive sentences, but on media day, as always, the conceited Owens was more than up to the task. The injured, self-promoting Owens said he was 81 percent healthy for the game, that he will be effective, and that he will perform a special end zone celebration. If Owens was smart, he would have told everyone he was suffering with pain, and then come out and dominated the game, rather than alert the Patriots that he is ready to go.
In sharp contrast to the Eagles on media day were the humble and businesslike New England Patriots. Having won two of the last three Super Bowls, the Pats have been there and done that, and are focused on winning rather than distractions. Also, it was refreshing to hear the polite Harrison and quarterback Tom Brady use the words "sir," and "nice to see you again" when speaking to reporters. Having respect for the game and those involved shows class and helps create great team unity.
On the field, if you believe that a team is only as strong as its weakest link, again you would have to side with New England. The Patriots have no apparent weaknesses, and they can beat you in many different ways. In the playoffs they held Indianapolis, the fourth-highest scoring team in NFL history, to three points, and scored 41 against Pittsburgh, a 16-1 team that was No. 1 in the league in defense. Brady has never lost a playoff game, and head coach Bill Belichick has a postseason record of 9-1, tied for best ever with Vince Lombardi.
Plus, it's "win one for the Gipper" time as both offensive coordinator Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel are moving on to head coaching positions. Top to bottom, New England is simply the best organization in football.
With Owens playing hurt, Mitchell carrying a bull's-eye on his back, and running back Brian Westbrook surely to be the focal point for New England's defense, if the Eagles are to win, quarterback Donovan McNabb must end up being the Most Valuable Player. McNabb's legs better be running more than his nose in chilly Jacksonville, because he gives Philly a fighting chance.
When conferences are compared, again New England appears to have the upper hand. The AFC dominated over the NFC in 2004 with a 43-21 advantage in interconference games. A 10-6 record was necessary to reach the playoffs in the powerful AFC, while a lousy 8-8 was enough in the NFC. Consequently, New England played the 10th toughest schedule, while Philadelphia's was ranked 30th.
So, the pick here is for the Patriots to win the championship, but will they cover the point spread? In the same position last year, New England was favored by seven and won by only three over Carolina. Still, AFC superiority has recently carried over into Super Bowls, with its 5-2 record straight up and 4-2-1 against the spread. Furthermore, teams with the better regular season spread records are 15-6-2 covering in the last 23, and in this case that would be New England.
As far as the Over/Under is concerned, Super Bowls just somehow find a way to go Over, as six out of the last eight have done so. After last season's Conference Championships where the Patriots and Panthers gave up 17 points combined, it appeared we were in for a low-scoring game, but the final was 32-29. This is the highest scoring team of New England's four-year run, and both squads possess Pro Bowl kickers.
Final score - New England 34, Philadelphia 20.
MVP - Corey Dillon or Brady.
