Things get serious this weekend as the playoffs begin in the National Football League. No longer can the remaining teams afford to lose another ball game, as now it's do or die, and in the end only one team will get to celebrate with the champions' Lombardi Trophy.
In this first Wild Card round, all four games are rematches from earlier in the season.
St. Louis at Seattle - St. Louis took the first meeting in Seattle by overcoming a 17-point deficit with six minutes left to win 33-27 in overtime. The Rams again beat the Seahawks in St. Louis five weeks later, 23-12. Tomorrow the odds would appear to be in St. Louis' favor once more, as 10 of the previous 15 teams in the Rams' position completed the 3-0 season sweep.
But it's tough to pick St. Louis, even at +3 1/2 points, considering its usual problems when playing on the road. Since the win at Seattle, the Rams have lost five consecutive road games by 13 points or more, and they haven't won a road playoff game in 16 years. Also, before most recently beating Philadelphia and the New York Jets, who both had nothing to gain by winning, St. Louis had failed to cover five consecutive games.
However, Seattle isn't any better, covering only two out of its last 13 games and losing its last six playoff contests.
The fact of the matter is that at 9-7 and 8-8, neither team is very good anyway, so the bet should be on the total. Playing equally poor defense, Seattle has had 11 out of 13 games go Over, and St. Louis is 5-1 Over on the road when quarterback Marc Bulger plays. The last seven Seattle home games have been covered by the visiting team and went Over, but the bet here is just on the Over 50 1/2.
New York Jets at San Diego - New York won at San Diego 34-28 way back in September as the Chargers committed four turnovers and asked veteran quarterback Doug Flutie to produce a miracle comeback. San Diego has come a long way since then, winning its division and nine out of its last 10 games. The Chargers are currently on a scorching 12-0-1 covering streak, so betting against them would be asking for trouble.
The Jets struggled to a 5-6 finish, and they have lost six straight road playoff games. Quarterback Chad Pennington has an ailing throwing shoulder, and traveling this week form New York to St. Louis to New York to San Diego should take a toll on the team. The pick is San Diego -7.
Denver at Indianapolis - Last week at home Denver won 33-14 over the Colts who benched running back Edgerrin James, QB Peyton Manning and others in order to avoid injuries. Indy had won eight in a row.
Last year Denver won the regular season meeting 31-17, only to get orange crushed in its playoff game at Indy 41-10. In fact, the Broncos have never won a dome playoff game, going 0-for-5 while never scoring more than 10 points. The last time Denver won a postseason contest, a guy named John Elway was quarterback. Going with Indianapolis -10.
Minnesota at Green Bay - Green Bay won both meetings of these division rivals by the identical score of 34-31. The Packers finished the season 9-2 and have achieved greatness in playoff home games, losing only once in 15 tries.
Minnesota has floundered of late, losing seven of 10 and failing to cover five in succession. Outdoors the Vikings are pitiful, going 2-20, including 2-15 under current head coach Mike Tice. Also, seeing receiver Randy Moss walking off the field before the game was over last week was not a positive sign for the team.
But who's to say that Minnesota won't lose 34-31 again and cover the six-point spread? It seems easier just to bet on the Over with these poor defensive teams. Green Bay has had 10 out of its last 12 games go Over, and five of six at home. Both squads possess quarterbacks capable of throwing for 400 yards. Taking the Over 49.
Super Bowl - With a 10-6 record needed to make the playoffs, the AFC is clearly stronger than the NFC. But both conferences appear to be wide open. With at least one road upset sure to eventually come, seven teams have a legitimate shot at reaching the title game. The prediction here is New England over Atlanta.
Joe Ellison is the Nevada Appeal Betting Columnist. Contact him at editor@nevadaappeal.com.
