The Sundays of the conference championships and Super Bowl are truly intense, but the best weekend of the NFL season starts tomorrow. All of the eight remaining teams will be in action in back-to-back games both days during the Divisional Playoff round.
Last week's Wild Card playoffs were real trend-busters, since for the first time ever, three road underdogs won in the first round. Even more unusual was the fact that no team had ever finished 8-8 and gone on to win a playoff game, yet Minnesota and St. Louis both turned the trick.
Just like Wild Card weekend, the four games coming up will be rematches from earlier in the year. If the outcomes from last week are any indication, expect to see similar results to the regular season contests. The underdog St. Louis Rams and New York Jets completed season sweeps over their opponents, and Minnesota stayed within the 6 1/2-point spread again, this time by beating Green Bay outright. Only Denver did not deliver a repeat performance; however, Indianapolis had nothing to play for in their regular season meeting.
This weekend's home teams all won this season's previous meetings, and all four rested during byes last week. Teams after bye weeks have historically won 75 percent of the time in the Divisional Playoff round.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh - The Jets are lucky to be alive after last week, surviving from a stupid roughing the quarterback penalty on a potential game-winning play, a missed San Diego field goal in overtime, and a sideline screaming match between head coach Herman Edwards and running backs' coach Bishop Harris.
Against the Jets, Pittsburgh is 15-2 overall and a perfect 6-0 at home, including its 17-6 win Dec. 12 that featured a key touchdown pass by running back Jerome Bettis. One couldn't ask for more than the Steelers' 14 straight wins, 10 consecutive at home, and 9-1 record in home Divisional Playoff games. Taking Pittsburgh -9.
St. Louis at Atlanta - In Atlanta's Sept. 19 34-17 victory over the Rams, the Falcons rushed for a season-high 242 yards to St. Louis' 30. That should be no surprise considering Atlanta led the NFL in rushing, and St. Louis was 29th stopping the run.
Last week the Rams benefited from five Seattle dropped passes, including one in the end zone late that would have sent the game into overtime, and their league-worst -24 turnover margin should eventually come back to haunt them.
The Falcons have been flying under the radar all season. Going with Atlanta -7.
Minnesota at Philadelphia - In Philadelphia's 27-16 Monday night victory over the Vikings Sept. 20, Minnesota controlled the clock for 38 minutes and outgained the Eagles by 100 yards, mainly due to quarterback Daunte Cullpepper's 37-for-47, 343-yard passing performance. The differences in the game were a 10-3 discrepancy in penalties, a non-reviewed Culpepper fumble on the one-inch line at the end of the first half, and a touchdown catch by Eagle Terrible Owens that was secured clearly out of bounds.
With some fair officiating, and Eagle coach Andy Reid's questionable present tactic of resting his best players for an entire month, it would seem one must expect a closer score this time around. But the biggest factor should be the loss of Owens to injury. Of the 13 playoff teams in the Super Bowl era that lost their leading touchdown scorer during the season, none made it to the Super Bowl and only five even won a single playoff game. Betting on Minnesota +9.
Indianapolis at New England - These two teams are all too familiar with each other. On opening Thursday night Sept. 9, Indianapolis committed three turnovers in the red zone and lost 27-24. In last year's AFC Championship game, the Colts' Peyton Manning threw four interceptions in a 24-14 defeat. During last year's regular season, New England won again by four.
In fact, the Patriots have won five consecutive meetings, and eight straight at home. As for Manning, he is 0-6 at New England, including 0-4 with five touchdowns and 11 interceptions against Patriot head coach Bill Belichick defenses.
To make matters tougher for the Colts, the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots own a 19-game home winning streak and a two-time title-winning, undefeated in the playoffs quarterback in Tom Brady. Also, New England has a new-found sense of urgency with coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel soon moving on to head coaching jobs.
All the Colts needed to do to make things even more difficult was mouth off and fire up the proud Pats. They can thank Mike Vanderjagt (quoting Manning), their own "idiot kicker" who likes to get "liquored up" for providing New England with some bulletin board material. Vanderjagt believes the Patriots are "ripe for the picking" and "beatable."
To beat the Patriots under all those circumstances, Indianapolis would definitely have earned it. Even with some defensive injuries, New England's will to win at home as proven champions should overcome. Picking New England -2.
Joe Ellison is the Nevada Appeal Betting Columnist. Contact him at editor@nevadaappeal.com.
