During last week's NFL Divisional Playoffs, the historically strong home team trend continued as all four favored hosts won, with three of them covering the point spread. If recent history repeats itself during Sunday's conference championships, then one home team and one road team will both triumph and punch their tickets to the Super Bowl.
For the last two seasons, Philadelphia lost at home in the championships to Carolina and Tampa Bay. In 2002, New England won at Pittsburgh. In 2001, Baltimore won in Oakland. In 2000, Tennessee won while visiting Jacksonville. In 1999 Atlanta won at Minnesota, and the year before that Denver won in Pittsburgh. With consistency like that, one would think all handicappers should pick at least one road team to at least cover the spread this week.
Atlanta at Philadelphia - The most memorable play of these teams' 2003 Divisional Playoff was Atlanta quarterback Michael Vick's electric 25-yard touchdown run, and the solid hit he took as he was driven into the end zone. Unfortunately for Vick, he absorbed that lick for nothing, as a Falcon holding penalty was called on the play. The Eagles subsequently held Atlanta to a punt, and eventually went on to win 20-6.
Come to think of it, that game was eerily similar to Philadelphia's 27-14 victory over Minnesota last week. The referees took control early with a couple of Viking defensive holding calls, helping the Eagles surge to a 14-0 lead. After a Minnesota touchdown, on the very next drive two costly Viking pass interference penalties led to another Philly score and 21-7 edge. Overall, Minnesota was assessed 108 yards in penalties to Philadelphia's 20. With the Vikings' seven flags, four Randy Moss dropped passes, two key Daunte Culpepper interceptions, one horribly botched fake field goal attempt, a nonexistent pass rush, a magical Eagle fumble recovery for a touchdown and a partridge in a pear tree, it is no wonder that Philadelphia owned a paltry 395-385 advantage in total yardage yet easily won the game.
Comparably uneventful was Atlanta's victory as the Falcons totally obliterated St. Louis, rushing for 327 yards, setting a playoff record for punt returns, registering four sacks including one for a safety, and shutting the Rams out in the second half of a 47-17 shellacking.
Last week all four teams with more rushing attempts won their ball games, so if that trend continues, the difference in Sunday's contest should be Atlanta's No. 1 running offense's ability to penetrate Philadelphia's D. The Eagles have the worst run defense of the remaining teams and have not proven they can stop a physical attack like the Falcons'.
Also, Philly is used to packing it in this round, having lost three consecutive championships, with quarterback Donovan McNabb accounting for five interceptions and only one touchdown. This year the Eagles already have a great excuse for losing with the injury to loudmouth showboat Terrible Owens, who will be able to only shake his pompoms while his team is on the field trying to back up his victory guarantee. Barring another one-sided officiating display, the pick is Atlanta +5.
New England at Pittsburgh - Considering both teams' extremely physical nature, and the fact that the winner of this contest should win the Super Bowl, this one could easily be the game of the year.
In the first meeting on Halloween, Pittsburgh dominated by rushing 49 times for 221 yards, compared to the Corey Dillon-less Patriots' 6 attempts for 5. With New England quarterback Tom Brady forced to throw a season-high 43 passes, he gave up two interceptions, lost a fumble and was sacked four times in a 34-20 loss that ended a 21-game winning streak.
With a hungry Dillon back in the line-up providing some balance, a closer game is expected this time around. Also, considering the Steelers' No. 1 overall NFL D, and last week's New England 20-3 dismantling of explosive Indianapolis, it would appear that defensively the teams are relatively equal too.
The difference could come down to coaching, the quarterbacks and overall experience. The combination of Brady with head coach Bill Belichick is undefeated in the playoffs, going 7-0 and winning two Super Bowls.
Although Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is undefeated for his career at 14-0, no rookie has ever started in a Super Bowl, and his seven interceptions the last four games have people talking about a possible thumb injury. Head coach Bill Cowher is one of the best in the business, but he is 1-3 at home in championship games. The Steelers also must improve their special teams play from last week.
This is a real tough one, but the choice is New England -3.
Super Bowl - With the pre-playoff prediction of New England to beat Atlanta still alive, there is no reason to change at this point.
Joe Ellison is the Nevada Appeal Betting Columnist. Contact him at editor@nevadaappeal.com.
