More distressing news gleaned from housing reports have national analysts flummoxed. But national is as national does, to butcher a quote from that font of wisdom Forrest Gump.
Remember that this region's housing market began to fall off while the national picture still showed a big bright boom and no apparent reason to think it would stop anytime soon.
Now, the same experts who saw no clouds on the horizon see no bottom to the dark well. Shame on we press types who keep quoting these fools.
We forget that all politics is local, and real estate is all about location, location, and location.
So let's put more stock in what local real estate leaders see than the S&P/Case-Schiller index or Goldman Sachs-Merrill Lynch oracles, who after all strain to see the future through a rearview mirror, mistaking it for a crystal ball.
Bill Driscoll, president of the Sierra Nevada Association of Realtors, pays a lot more attention to what's happening in the Carson Valley and Carson City than the national press, proxy to the analysts who in turn earnestly study the headlines as well as the numbers.
His conclusions follow what's in the reports. Housing sales here have been slowly - oh so slowly -- picking up from one month to the next this year. Nothing dramatic, and much less than in the recent past, perhaps overheated years. But still there, and he's encouraged.
The president of the state Realtors association, Rob Wigton, is not merely being sunny when he remarks that this is about the best time for investors to start buying.
Our friends at Goldman Sachs may see no end to the rise in gas prices and no bottom to the housing market. (Imagine their surprise at oil's price dip just when it was supposed to be soaring ever higher.)
The bottom of the real estate market will come, all right, and bounce quickly, like a superball. Investors' own instincts will put them behind the curve, just as they sell not at the peak but considerably below it.
This best advice comes not from the mirror but looking forward: Buy now, if you can. You'll do better than waiting for absolute proof of the market hitting bottom, and assuredly better than if you are still listening to the rearview prophets.
Still, here's an interesting observation from one national economist taking a longer view than most: Wachovia's Mark Vitner sees the bottom of housing prices nationally based on historical record to be between 22 and 29 percent below the market peaks.
If that trend holds up this time, it bodes well for the housing market here. We're already there, or just about there.
Here's a prediction: Many people who are a lot smarter than Forrest Gump are going to be kicking themselves in the not-so-distant future.
When the observers who could not see a bubble fear there is no bottom, it's a good bet that the upturn isn't so far away after all.
n Don Rogers, publisher of The Record-Courier, can be reached at 782-5121, ext. 208, or drogers@recordcourier.com.
