Yes, the economic tide has ebbed. But it's not as if we all just stopped living, or shopping.
Some of us are even buying homes " more than we did a few months ago. So there's been some improvement in Carson Valley's economic catalyst, real estate.
We see one another at the grocery store, gas station, post office, restaurant, casino, church, various gatherings. There's yet some life in this community. You can see it and read all about it if you keep your chin up and eyes open.
Business has slowed, not died. When you get used to growing every year, the inevitable correction can feel like the end, sure. But if your enterprise has dropped 5, 10, 20, even 30 percent off this year, that still means a lot more people are buying your products or services than not.
Small businesses shut their doors in good times as well as bad, part of a natural churn. These tricky operations require real skill and no small amount of luck to succeed, after all. Those of us who haven't taken a turn at the helm as owner tend to underestimate what it takes and the huge, scary bet you make going into business for yourself.
The culling, cruel as it is, may come quicker and harsher in a tough economy. But these closings alone are not necessarily signs of enduring general doom. They do get more attention now, and we are more likely to assume the economy did this rather than the myriad other factors that cause businesses to go under in better times.
Nor are closings evidence that the right idea, executed and managed well, cannot succeed right now, in the midst of a downturn.
Some of America's greatest business success stories were hatched in recessions, including:
n The Home Depot.
n Airline loyalty programs
n IBM's personal computer
n CNN and MTV
n The initial rise of Wal-Mart
n The iPod
n Pull-Ups training pants for youngsters. Don't scoff. Modern mothers everywhere well understand.
That's according to Advertising Age, talking a couple of months ago about marketing in recessions. During the Depression, Proctor & Gamble came up with the first synthetic detergent and the first radio soap opera. The Japanese broke into the U.S. auto market in a big way during the downturn in the 1970s with high-mileage compact cars. Today, they have the inside edge with the hybrids.
The point here is that downturns set up innovation, even transformation, as well as delivering plenty of pain. It's got nothing to do with the government, the media, The Man. None of them can take the essential opportunity away.
For those of us not clever enough or lucky enough to have that big idea, we'll have to make do with hewing closely to the fundamentals. Recessions and the recoveries that follow bear this out, too.
Location matters. Investment matters. Service matters. Marketing matters. Being competitive matters. Miscalculate on any of these, and it's not government's fault or a reporter's.
Recession puts a harsh spotlight on our practices. Certainly newspaper companies feel it, too. But the ebb cycle of the economic tides since the first newspaper was published in Germany around 1600 has yet to kill the print medium. Ted Turner was no prophet. Radio and television became more complementary than competitor.
The Web is evolving as an extension of newspapers rather than the final killer, as TV and radio in their turn were supposed to be. The Internet has provided immediacy to the largest reporting force in any community, the local paper. The newspapers now can break stories in real time, and do it with cameras and microphones as well as in print. That's not a death blow; that's a shot of new life.
And perhaps especially in recessions, it turns out that the local paper is by far the best single way for businesses to get word out to consumers with all the fragmentation of the other media.
True, consumers have become much more careful with their spending. We all have. But proper investment in advertising, across the media, is a business fundamental that businesses trim to their peril. For most, that's an average of 3 percent of sales income, perhaps more just ahead of prime selling periods and less in the lower seasons. Think swimsuits and skis as more extreme examples.
Recessions provide opportunity for the companies just gutsy enough and able to continue their marketing, even increase this investment, to capture more of their business' share. Study after study backs this assertion up. If not quite gravity, the research is clear.
Of course, downturns still hurt nearly all of the businesses in town. But those that keep advertising recover much quicker when the tide changes than those that believe they can overlook this one fundamental or mistake it for a luxury.
Yes, the tide will change. It's the way of the world. Ebb and flow. A rising tide bears its own set of challenges, too. Will you be ready?
Just as it's wise to prepare for the inevitable downturns, now's the time for companies to put themselves in position to ride the next wave, hard as it is to believe at the moment that the cycle will turn.
n Don Rogers, publisher of The Record-Courier, can be reached at 782-5121, ext. 208, or drogers@recordcourier.com.
