As an undergraduate and then graduate sociology student it was drilled into me that social scientists don't predict, they forecast. Although I really don't see the difference I will forecast what I think the future for Alpine County will be, in the near term and for the longer time.
For the next couple of years we may expect more belt-tightening as the overall economy continues to decline with growing unemployment and reduced consumer spending. This is on top of the massive deficit resulting from the Iraq War and our involvement in Afghanistan. Paying interest on the deficit let alone reducing it will be a drag on the economy for years to come. At present the limited lending by financial institutions, despite government cash infusions, adds to the faltering economy. Contributing problems such as the housing bubble and unregulated speculation in so-called toxic securities are well known.
Alpine's million-dollar deficit that triggered reduced department budgets and loss of jobs is a harbinger of what to expect, certainly for the near future. Already the decline in home construction has meant fewer fees for permits and fees for other services that go with new structures. Should the value of existing homes drop significantly there will be pressure to lower assessments that in turn will mean loss in property tax revenue.
Our county does not live in isolation and we are obviously affected by what happens at the state level as well as the national. We will be impacted by California's $40 million budget deficit by less money from the state treasury and the requirement to pay for state unfunded mandates, as well as by trying to maintain needed service such as police and fire protection.
Hopefully help will come from the promised financial stimulus by funding of "shovel-ready" jobs although a significant increase in employment is not likely in the short run in view of the high loss of jobs. There will probably be greater funding for welfare such as extended unemployment benefits and food stamps and other aid for families in distress.
A bright spot I see is the push for universal health care especially by the growing number of middle class families whose job loss includes loss of health insurance. In turn health care should be an important source of job growth.
Now what about the long term? Historically our economy has been "boom and bust""periods of economic growth followed by recessions. The question is how long it will be before the present economy improves. As regards the current recession or depression"take your choice"economists do not expect a turn around until at least 201I or 2012. So what can be done locally to make the best of a bad situation?
1. Careful and frugal budgeting by the county together with strict monitoring of department spending to avoid their going over their budget.
2. Use Alpine's scenic and recreational attractiveness to increase tourism. Because of the present economic situation families will be less likely to take expensive trips, cruises, etc. and efforts should be made to bring them here by advertising our attractions and undertaking efforts to provide good restaurants and motel/hotel accommodations. Preservation of the county's scenic and recreational environment is essential.
Sources: Stiglitz and Blimes, The Trillion Dollar War; Galbraith, A Journey Through Economic Time; Phillips, Bad Money; Reich, Supercapitalism.
n Irving Kraus is an Alpine County resident.
