Eric Stanger, combining the optimism of a Chamber of Commerce president with the optimism of a residential real estate agent, sees signs that the hard-hit Lyon County economy is recovering.
"I feel like we've come through to the other side," says Stanger, who leads the Fernley Chamber of Commerce.
It's been a tough slog for the county and its three communities - Yerington, Dayton and Fernley.
Its jobless rate in the first quarter stood at 19.2 percent, the highest in the state.
Retail sales in the first couple of months of this year were running more than 20 percent below year-earlier figures.
The county's foreclosure rate - one in every 59 households was involved in foreclosure this spring - was the highest in the state, according to RealtyTrac Inc.
And the State Demographer's office estimates that the county's population fell 3.6 percent from mid-2008 to mid-2009.
Stanger, who works as RE/MAX real estate agent when he's not chairing chamber meetings, says the same factor that brought rapid growth to Fernley and Dayton in the middle years of this decade - affordable home prices - is coming back into play.
Median sales prices for Fernley-area homes stood at $100,000 in March. That's down sharply from the peak levels of $260,000 in early 2006, and it's low enough to get the attention of bargain-minded buyers willing to commute to Sparks or the nearby Tahoe Reno Industrial Center.
The inventory of homes on the market at the end of March represented a 1.2-month supply at current sales rates. (The National Association of Realtors says a five- to seven-month supply represents a balanced market.)
Signs of recovery in the residential market in Dayton are mixed. Dan Smith, president of the Sierra Nevada Board of Realtors, notes that the median sales price of Dayton-area homes stood at $155,713 in the first third of this year, down nearly 14 percent from a year earlier. The number of sales transactions, meanwhile, was down about 8 percent from a year earlier.
Smith says buyers who work in the Reno area or Douglas County may not see those prices as sufficiently attractive to justify a long commute.
"People are trying to locate a little closer to their work," he says.
Home construction in the Dayton area remains slow as well.
During the first four months of this year, the county issued permits for 14 homes in Dayton and unincorporated areas of Lyon County. (Fernley and Yerington are the county's two incorporated cities.)
"We used to issue that many in a day," says Nick Malarchik, director of the Lyon County Building Department. "It's still pretty dead."
Developers of industrial properties, meanwhile, are working to locate work a little closer to homes in Lyon County.
"Activity has definitely picked up in Fernley, mainly in the manufacturing sector," says Stan Thomas, vice president of Wade Development Co., developer of the Crossroads Commerce Center along Interstate 80.
Representatives of several firms, most of them East Coast companies looking for Western distribution and manufacturing sites, have been in Fernley in recent weeks.
Wade Development also has seen stirrings of interest in Dayton-area properties.
"We just wish we could land a couple of those," Thomas says.
Brad Woodring, manager of economic development for NV Energy, says industrial parks in Fernley and Dayton draw interest from companies that hope to buy enough land to sustain future expansion projects along with current projects.
And the population growth of Lyon County communities in the last decade, he says, ensures an ample labor force for companies scouting the region for locations.
Political worries among business owners may be slowing the recovery, says Bill Miles, president of Miles Construction of Carson City.
"It's stirring. We're talking to a lot of business people," says Miles. "But there are a lot of people who are on the sidelines until the November election. They're afraid to spend money."
Retailers see signs that the county is recovering.
In March, taxable sales in Lyon County were down only 3 percent - a vast improvement from the 23 percent decline recorded in February.
Sandy Jenner, executive director of the Fernley Chamber of Commerce, says retailers who cater to new home owners have become busier as residential sales perk up.
And she notes that a new Comfort Inn that just opened and a Walgreens store that's under construction both will bolster retail activity in the community.
