Will potential La Nina lead to another epic winter?

LAKE TAHOE - Last year's La Nina led to a seemingly endless winter.

And the climate pattern may be gearing up for a return this year, but that doesn't guarantee similar results when it comes to snowfall.

On Aug. 4, the National Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina Watch after computer models showed the weather pattern has a 50 percent chance of redeveloping during the fall.

A La Nina Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for the development of La Nina conditions "within the next six months," according to the National Weather Service.

La Nina is associated with cooler-than-normal water in the Pacific Ocean along the equator. The weather pattern typically leads to colder and wetter weather in the Pacific northwest and drier and warmer weather in the southern United States, including Southern California.

But, because Lake Tahoe sits on the border between La Nina's typically wetter north and typically drier south, its anyone's guess as to the effects of the weather pattern on the area, said David Myrick, a science and operations officer for the National Weather Service in Reno.

"It's kind of an equal chances situation for us here," Myrick said.

Neutral conditions, in which neither La Nina or a El Nino conditions exist, were present in the Pacific as of early August, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

In the winter of 2010-11, the Pacific Ocean experienced a moderate La Nina and California experienced near record snowfall.

The amount of water in the Lake Tahoe Basin was 208 percent of the May 1 average, according to data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The Climate Prediction Center notes a historical tendency for significant wintertime La Nina episodes to be followed by relatively weaker episodes the following winter.

How the weather pattern plays into the upcoming winter season all depends on how storms track across the Sierra Nevada, Myrick said.

"It's still too far out," Myrick said. "We'll just have to wait and see."o