The 42-year reign of Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi has come to an end. The world will certainly be a better place with this erratic despot gone, the potentate who was responsible for numerous global terrorist incidents over the past four decades.
The triumph by a combination of rebel forces constitutes somewhat of a success for the cautious U.S. policy toward the conflict. The Obama administration kept American "boots off the ground in Libya." It supported the ouster of the dictator from the sidelines, preferring to let the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and our European Allies take leading roles. Some criticized the Obama administration for being too slow to support the Libyan uprising. This criticism ignores several factors, including the desirability for gaining an international mandate, the need for organizing NATO forces behind the effort and, most importantly, the fact that the Libyan rebels needed time to organize their own forces.
We could not have speeded up the results without putting troops on the ground and taking much of the burden on our own shoulders. That would have created considerable resentment and been counterproductive.
Most seasoned observers believed it was worth waiting for the United Nations and NATO to assist the rebel effort. Whether the administration should have sought a congressional mandate, which many believed the War Powers Act required, is a topic of hot debate. Suffice it to say that any administration, Republican or Democrat, believes it was not required to do so.
The big question is "what now?" With more than 140 tribes, Libya could slip into the abyss of civil war. Beneath the euphoria that will accompany the rebel victory, Libya is a deeply divided nation - all the more so now that the lid has been blown off Gadhafi's tyrannical dictatorship. Former Ambassador to Morocco Mark Ginsberg feels that the real danger of the temporary alliance that has been formed is that the backbone of the rebel leadership will fracture, perhaps on tribal or religious lines, as competing tribes try to put in their own deals to gain influence and assert control over Libya's petroleum resources.
A particularly worrisome aspect of the rebel alliance is that it seems to be composed of two key ideological and religious components. On the one hand, there are members of Libya's relatively secular political, economic and military leadership, allied with some democratic nationalists. However, much of the alliance also consists of hard-line Islamists who were based in Benghazi - many affiliated with al-Qaida and its many offshoots.
Can the transitional government restore order? Can it prevent the type of lawlessness and looting we saw in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein? Should NATO and U.S. forces go to Libya to offer badly needed support and guidance? And most importantly, should the United States and other institutions now free up the financial resources they froze - worth more than $3 billion - or dole it out according to progress achieved by the new government?
Neither the United States nor NATO can or should be directly involved on the ground. This is not the time or place for the alliance to consider sending peacekeeping forces to Libya to try to shape the outcome. Our ability to do so is limited, and a visible presence in the country would be detrimental and counterproductive.
We can hope that those elements that constituted the rebel alliance and will be part of the new government will move quickly to keep key military and bureaucratic personnel in place to ensure order and stability. We can hope that competent financial managers will remain or be placed at the head of key agencies to resuscitate the Libyan economy. We should be prepared to provide assistance, including freeing up frozen financial assets, where we can.
At the same time, we must understand that the realistic prospects for achieving a democratic transition in a country that has suffered from oppressive rule and lack of civil order for more than 40 years are not great. Prepare for disappointment.
• Tyrus W. Cobb is former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan.
