A table comparing population estimates from the Nevada Demographer and the U.S. Census.
With January bringing the mid-point in the third decade of the 21st Century and the Legislative Session beginning, population figures for the Silver State’s 17 counties will play into determining what and where laws are in effect.
Quantifying growth in Douglas County has long been a challenge. For most of its history, Douglas was home to fewer than 4,000 people, according to the U.S. Census.
In 1970, the county’s population nearly doubled from 3,481 to 6,882 people. By 1980, the population nearly tripled to 19,421 people.
At the time, it was one of the largest percentage population increases in the entire nation, and it would be the only time in the county’s history when its growth increase hit triple digits.
It would take 20 years for the population to double again with 41,259 people here for the 2000 Census. The Great Recession slowed things down for the next count with 46,997 people in 2010. By 2020, the county had grown 5.3 percent to 49,488 people.
But with the Legislature meeting five times over the course of a decade, the Nevada Demographer produces the population estimates used by lawmakers.
Those estimates have historically had to be revised downward when the Census is released, and this decade there is already a significant difference between the Census and the numbers issued by Nevada State Demographer Chris Wright.
The Demographer estimated there were 54,343 people living in the county in 2023, which is 4,798 more than the 49,545 July 1, 2023, estimate from the Census, a difference of 8.8 percent.
The gap between the two measurements is an outlier across the Silver State where the Demographer and the Census are within 1.5 percent of one another. Clark County, where two thirds of the state’s residents live, is only 1 percent off.
One factor is that many of the people who call Lake Tahoe home, in fact, spend a significant time elsewhere. Another is the relatively low per home occupancy for Douglas.
“Regarding the gap between the state estimates and those from the U.S. Census, there are several factors that could explain the discrepancy,” said Wright through Nevada Department of Taxation Public Information Officer Patricia Olmstead. “One key element is that the state population estimates are determined by averaging, on an equal basis, the results of the Nevada Regression Model and the relevant Housing Unit Model.”
According to the Demographer, Douglas is estimated to have 54,600 this year, with an annual growth of just over a half-percent over the next five years.
That rate is forecast to zero out in 2032 and actually decline over the next decade.
“As for the population projections showing a decline around 2034, this is primarily based on anticipated demographic shifts,” Wright said. “Douglas County has experienced strong growth over the past few decades, largely due to in-migration. However, we expect that as the population ages, the number of deaths will begin to outpace the number of births. This trend, combined with potential out-migration of residents seeking job opportunities or housing options elsewhere, could contribute to a gradual population decline after that time.”
On Dec. 19 the Census reported Nevada was the sixth fastest growing state in the union with 3.26 million people, an increase of 1.7 percent as of July 1.
