Santoro: UNLV stepped up — can the Pack do the same?

Sports Fodder:

The UNLV Rebels stepped up big time and met the Mountain West challenge last week. Now it's the Nevada Wolf Pack's turn.

The Rebels, just 9-7 overall and 3-2 in league play at the time and coming off one-sided, embarrassing losses to Colorado State and Boise State, surprised the entire conference a week ago by winning at home against Utah State (65-62) and on the road at San Diego State (76-68).

Can the Wolf Pack, which plays at Utah State on Wednesday and will host San Diego State on Saturday, keep up with their little brothers to the south? The Pack, 11-7, 3-4 and riding a three-game winning streak, is playing better right now (sort of) than the Rebels were going into last week. But the two games this week against two of the elite teams in the Mountain West are just as important and valuable to the Pack as they were to the Rebels.

We will find out this week if the Pack is indeed a Mountain West elite this week or just another Mountain West mishmash of mediocrity. Three convoluted victories (Fresno State, Air Force, San Jose State) the past 10 days after a four-game losing streak has left us wondering just what we are watching up on N. Virginia Street at Lawlor Events Center.

This week will give us a more focused and fact-based clue about this team and how far it will play into March. The gut feeling here is that Steve Alford's team, which has gotten to the NCAA Tournament in each of the last two years, deserves the benefit of the doubt.

But it won't be easy. Losing to the Rebels, after all, probably did nothing but poke the Mountain West bears that are the Utah State and San Diego State programs, and they will likely be more angry, determined and sharp this week.

Utah State is still 16-2, 6-1, has had a week of rest since that disturbing loss to the Rebels, and will be at home on Wednesday and not in the Silver State. They remain the No. 1 team in the Nevada Appeal's Mountain West rankings for a reason. They are well-coached, deep (Mason Falslev, Nique Clifford and Ian Martinez are among the top 10 players in the entire conference) and are almost unbeatable in Logan, Utah.

San Diego State (11-5, 4-3) is, well, San Diego State. They have been a touch overrated since their Final Four run in 2023, but they are extremely well-coached, unselfish and physical at both ends of the floor. It's never a pleasant experience playing the Aztecs because they play basketball as if it’s a rugby scrum. But they are also offensively challenged (just 48 points at New Mexico on Jan. 11) and aren't all that frightening away from their Viejas Arena.

The Pack isn't afraid of a fight. You don't become one of the top defensive teams on the West Coast like the Pack by being afraid to be physical. The Pack nearly beat Utah State on New Year's Eve (a 69-64 loss) at Lawlor Events Center and beat San Diego State last year (70-66) at home. This is not an impossible task.

The Pack needs to come out of this week with at least one victory. The Rebels, after all, won two just a week ago against the same opponents. That, alone, should be enough incentive for the Pack.

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The Wolf Pack needs to start beating quality teams. Quality in college basketball usually means the ability to win 20-plus games in a season and to be in a legitimate conversation for the NCAA Tournament. The Pack hasn't beaten one of those teams since it beat Virginia Commonwealth, 64-61, in the Charleston (S.C.) Classic way back on Nov. 22.

We thought the win over Oklahoma State two days later (Nov. 24) in Charleston would also qualify as a quality win and it might be once again in March, but the Cowboys have struggled since losing to the Pack, going 6-6 since and 2-4 in the Big 12. VCU is currently 14-4, 4-1 in the Atlantic 10.

Now, of course, it's not all the Pack's fault that they haven't beaten a quality team since beating VCU or Oklahoma State on the other end of the country. They haven't had a lot of opportunities. That's the problem with playing in the Mountain West. The likes of Air Force, San Jose State, Wyoming and Fresno State (and, depending on the week, also UNLV and Colorado State) tend to clog up your schedule at times.

But the Pack has had two chances since the Charleston tournament to beat a team the NCAA Tournament selection committee will notice in March. But it lost at New Mexico on Jan. 3 and at home against Utah State on Dec. 31. The games were extremely close, but they were still losses.

That's why this is an important week for the Pack. It's time this Pack team shows belongs in the pool of teams deserving of NCAA Tournament consideration, you know, in case the good folks on the committee are tired of picking as many as six Mountain West teams like last year.

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The Kansas City Chiefs just might be the worst 16-2 team in the history of the NFL. They are also in the running for the title of luckiest 16-2 in NFL history since they are currently just two more victories away from their NFL-record third consecutive Super Bowl victory.

The Chiefs squeezed by once again last week in the semifinals of the AFC playoffs, 23-14 over the Houston Texans. The Texans had more first downs (18-14), total yards (336-212), rushing yards (149-50) and their kicker (Ka'imi Fairbairn) left seven points on the Arrowhead Stadium turf by missing two field goals and an extra point.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes got 117 of his 177 yards and seven of his 16 completions by throwing to tight end Travis Kelce, who is always open despite seemingly running the 40-yard dash in longer time than it takes for his girlfriend Taylor Swift to sing one of her songs.

But all of this has happened all season long. Only three of the Chiefs' 15 victories have been by more than 10 points. They have scored as many as 30 points in a game in regulation time just once all year, 30-27 over Carolina, a team that gave up 30 or more 10 times.

The Chiefs averaged 22.6 points a game and allowed 19.2 a game in the regular season. They gained just 119 more yards than their opponents, had just 22 more first downs, 60 more passing yards and 59 more rushing yards. That sort of domination shouldn't add up to a 15-2 regular season. The Chiefs also have only had 400-plus yards of offense in a game once (460 against New Orleans) all year. The Detroit Lions had 521 yards last week against the Washington Commanders and lost by two touchdowns.

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Yes, yes, we get it. The NFL is not only about offense. The Chiefs win because Mahomes is the best closer in the history of the game this side of Tom Brady, they appear to always get the benefit of the doubt from the officials (not an official stat), and they are a vastly underrated defensive team. Oh, and one other thing. They don't turn the ball over.

The Chiefs' offense has not coughed up the ball since it did it twice against Buffalo in a 30-21 loss on Nov. 17. They have not turned the ball over even once over their last eight games. Mahomes was intercepted 11 times, running back Carson Steele lost two fumbles and Kelce lost one for the 14 Chiefs turnovers all season, all in the first 10 games.

The eight games in a row without a turnover is an NFL record in the Super Bowl era. Want another stat concerning turnovers? The four teams still alive in the playoffs (Chiefs, Commanders, Bills, Eagles) have not turned the ball over once this postseason. It's the first time the final four teams have not lost the ball even once in the postseason heading into the conference title games. 

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The Chiefs, simply because Mahomes is their quarterback and they will be playing at Arrowhead Stadium, are a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday against the Bills.

The Bills are the better team. They beat the Chiefs 31-20 back on Nov. 17. Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who has had a better season than Mahomes, was 27-of-40 for 262 yards and a touchdown in the win over Kansas City. His 26-yard touchdown run with two minutes to play put the game away. The Bills outgained the Chiefs, 366-259, Mahomes was picked off twice and the Bills controlled the ball for 34 minutes.

But none of that matters for the oddsmakers because it's the AFC title game and this time it is at Arrowhead Stadium. The oddsmakers don't want to give the Chiefs any points at this time of the year at Arrowhead because every single bet would be on them.

Allen is 0-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs. He's 7-2 against everybody else. But his lack of success in the postseason against Mahomes and the Chiefs hasn't been all his fault. Hardly any of it, in fact, is his fault. He's completed 81-of-124 passes for 802 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception while running the ball 30 times for 228 yards and two scores against the Chiefs in the postseason. The Bills' defense just can't stop Mahomes and the Chiefs.

This, however, is Allen's time. Mahomes won't have the same offense on Sunday as he's had in his first three playoff games against Allen and the Bills.

We've told you in this space over the years repeatedly to never bet against the Chiefs and Mahomes at any time but especially not at Arrowhead in the playoffs. But this just feels different. Take the Bills on Sunday, something along the lines of 28-27 as the football gods (those not named Mahomes) push a Harrison Butker field goal wide left or right in the final minute.

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The NFC title game seems easier to pick. The Eagles are a six-point favorite against the Commanders because they have the better team by far, their quarterback Jalen Hurts is a playoff-tested veteran and not a rookie like the Commanders' Jayden Daniels and the game will be in Philadelphia.

Hurts and the Eagles also have running back Saquon Barkley, who will be coming off a 205-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Los Angeles Rams last week in the snow. He had 119 yards against Green Bay to open the playoffs. He ran for 150 yards and two touchdowns against Washington in December and 146 yards and two touchdowns in November.

The Eagles beat the Commanders, 26-18, in November in Philadelphia with Hurts and lost to the Commanders, 36-33, in Washington in December without Hurts. Keep in mind the Eagles were up 27-14 early in the fourth quarter in that loss in December.

There is a chance Hurts could miss Sunday's game with a sore knee. If that happens the Commanders will be going to the Super Bowl. But Hurts says he will play, the Commanders say he will play and, well, it’s the NFC title game. Hurts is a football player, not an NBA player. He won't sit this game out if he can walk on the field. Eagles fans won't allow it.

Daniels is legit. Anybody that can go to Detroit in the playoffs and whip the Lions, well, he's not afraid of anything. He doesn't know he's supposed to be a rattled rookie in the playoffs. The Eagles fans, though, will remind him.

Give the six points, keep your fingers crossed and hold your breath.